Rainfall Time Series Analysis at Al-Diwaniyah Station for the Period 1965–2025
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the rainfall time series recorded at the Diwaniyah meteorological station for the period 1965–2025 in order to identify long-term trends, annual variability, and decadal patterns, as well as to detect potential climatic shifts in the region. The results indicate a clear downward trend in annual and seasonal rainfall, supported by linear regression analysis and statistical trend detection. The findings also reveal a marked increase in rainfall irregularity, as evidenced by the rise in the coefficient of variation (CV) and the widening gap between wet and dry years.
Decadal analysis shows a gradual decline in average rainfall amounts, particularly during the last two decades, accompanied by more frequent drought years and fewer surplus years. This pattern reflects the region’s growing vulnerability to climate variability and supports regional studies reporting intensified aridity and reduced precipitation across central and southern Iraq. The observed changes are consistent with broader climate change impacts affecting the Middle East.
The study highlights the importance of understanding rainfall variability for improving water resource management and agricultural planning in Diwaniyah. It recommends adopting adaptive strategies to cope with increasing drought conditions and enhancing climate monitoring systems to support long-term environmental planning
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